Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $270,132$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,588$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,834.9}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,834.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $237,331$ on 2020-10-22

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,026,281$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,521$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,219.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,219.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $841,384$ on 2020-10-22

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $813,451$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,437$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,314.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(41,314.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $766,362$ on 2020-10-22

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $465,726$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,275.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(281,275.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,968$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,120.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,120.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $169,302$ on 2020-10-22

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,969$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,868.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 102.4)}}\) (asimptote \(93,868.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,930$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,793.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,793.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $103,039$ on 2020-10-22

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,041,991$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,237$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,451.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,451.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $895,092$ on 2020-10-22

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,473$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,684.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 169.8)}}\) (asimptote \(26,684.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $874$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{866.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 127.2)}}\) (asimptote \(866.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,552$ on 2020-10-22

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $268,517$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,981$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,241.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,241.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $256,105$ on 2020-10-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Estonia recovered 42%
Montenegro recovered 13%

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,247$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66.4}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 23.5)}}\) (asimptote \(66.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $810$ on 2020-10-22

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,259$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,464.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 249.2)}}\) (asimptote \(54,464.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $253$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{512.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 217.5)}}\) (asimptote \(512.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,913$ on 2020-10-22